Facts Behind America's Rising Natural Catastrophes: Costs and Trends

It is easier to prepare and prevent than to repair and repent.

Ezra Taft Benson

While we may not be able to prevent natural disasters entirely, understanding their trends can help potentially minimize losses. To better prepare for the impact of disasters, we delved into the trends and costs of natural catastrophes on a state by state basis in the US, providing some insights for those affected. Here is what we discovered:

• Natural disasters in the US have been increasing since 1980

• Texas has the highest natural disaster frequency, 41% of natural disasters occur in April and May, with severe storms comprising 79% of these events in the past five years

• Natural disasters in specific months mainly affect certain states, with 60% in January affecting New York and 61% in November and December affecting California

• October sees the fewest disasters, with 26 years out of 45 having no incidents

• Tropical cyclones are the costliest natural disasters, costing twice as much as droughts, which are the second most costly

• Specific regions are prone to different types of natural disasters. 51% of tropical cyclones affect Florida, while 60% of severe storms impact Texas

• The impact of natural disaster on insurance rates

Natural Disasters in the US Have Been on the Rise since 1980

A study found that there have been 377 billion-dollar natural disasters since 1980, costing $2,674.9 billion and resulting in 16,353 fatalities. Comparing the 2020s to the 1980s, there was a significant 5.6-fold increase and a 5.4-fold increase respectively in the average number of disasters and losses, showcasing a clear uprising trend in both the frequency and severity.

Globally, extreme weather events and disasters are happening more often. The planet's warming is a major factor in this trend. Additionally, the effects of El Nino and La Nina are also contributing to these extreme weather events, making weather conditions worse worldwide.

More Than Half of U.S. States Experience More Natural Disasters with Texas Tops with Five-Year Average of 11 Events

In the past five years, the majority of US states had an increase in the average number of disasters compared to the 1980s. Texas stands out with the highest average of 11 disasters per year, up from 2 in the 1980s. While no states have seen a decline in disaster frequency.

In Texas, 41% of natural disasters occur in April and May, with severe storms making up 79% of these incidents in the past five years.

In recent years, Texas has seen more disasters and a shift in the types of disasters. Before 2000, severe storms used to account for one-third of disasters. However, in the recent five years, they have become the most common type of disaster in Texas, representing a staggering 78.6% of all incidents.

In January, 60% of Natural Disasters Affect New York, while in November and December, 61% of Disasters Target California

Natural disasters in the US follow specific patterns in terms of both time and location, with certain types of disasters being more likely to occur in specific states during certain months.

For example, in January, 60% of disasters occur in New York, three-quarters of which are winter storms. Similarly, in November and December, 61% of disasters affect California, with wildfires in November and droughts in December. These patterns enable us to prepare in advance.

In the Last 45 Years, October Has Been Relatively Calm, with No Major Natural Disasters in 26 Years

The few disasters that did occur in October were mostly medium to small hurricanes, floods, and dust storms, impacting around 4.7 states on average for 3 to 4 days. Therefore, October is an ideal month for various activities, with a survey by CouponBirds showing that October is the top month for weddings.

Despite the history of calmness in October, it is crucial to stay prepared, as significant events like Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 have caused extensive damage and affected 13 states.

Tropical Cyclones Emerge as the Costliest Natural Disasters, with the Economic Impact Being Twice as High as the Second Costliest, Droughts

In the US, since 1980, tropical cyclones have caused losses of $1,386 billion, averaging $22 billion per event. Moreover, the frequency of tropical storms is still on an upward trend.

Florida is the most affected state by tropical cyclones, with 93% of disaster-related losses attributed to them. Louisiana has the highest per capita disaster losses in the past five years, exceeding $10,000, primarily due to Hurricane Laura in 2020 and Hurricane Ida in 2021.

An Illustration of Natural Disasters in Specific Areas

The United States has different regions with a higher risk of specific natural disasters. For example, Florida is particularly prone to tropical cyclones, with 51% of such events affecting the state. Texas is more susceptible to severe storms like tornadoes and hail, with these events comprising 60% of the natural disasters.

The Impact of Natural Disaster on Insurance Rates

After $18B disasters in 2023, Florida saw a significant rise in insurance prices with homeowners insurance going up by 30% and car insurance by 24%. The frequency of catastrophic events directly impacts insurance rates. For instance, Texas and Georgia, with 16 and 14 disasters respectively, experienced around a 20% premium increase for both home and auto insurance. Louisiana, hit by numerous storms over the past years, saw a remarkable 63% spike in homeowners insurance rates by January 2023. Similar trends have been observed in various states, like California.

Methodology

We acquired disaster-related data from NOAA for all of the US states.

First, we analyzed the number of natural disasters across the US, as well as the associated losses and fatalities, and found an overall trend of increasing disasters.

Upon examining the data of each state, we found Texas stood out. We saw that severe storms were becoming more common in Texas. We also explored where disasters were happening most often, like in Florida and California.

Finally, we visualized the data on a map to provide a more intuitive representation to see the patterns.

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