The Great American Breakfast Gap: How Policy, Inflation, and Egg Shortages Impact Students

Rising food costs and unprecedented egg shortages have America's school breakfast programs facing a critical moment. While 31.4 million children qualified for free or reduced-price meals during the 2023-24 school year, only 12.4 million started their day with breakfast at school. This means over 19 million eligible students are missing breakfast daily as inflation and egg shortages strain family budgets nationwide.

Key Findings:

• States with universal free breakfast policies have higher participation rates than states with minimal requirements

• Six of the ten states with the highest food insecurity have the weakest breakfast program policies, creating a "hunger policy gap"

• Only 59% of parents nationwide report that their child's school clearly communicates about breakfast availability

• Despite California's strong policy framework, the state still accounts for 420 million missed meals annually

• Egg prices are projected to increase 41% in 2025, adding pressure to already struggling school breakfast programs

Breakfast Policy: A State-by-State Divide

To better illustrate the availability of school breakfast for public school students across the country, we've devised the School Breakfast Access Index. Each state is rated on a scale from 1-8 based on their breakfast program policies and requirements.

States scoring 7-8 points represent the gold standard, offering universal free breakfast for all students regardless of income. The highest-rated states (8 points) like California, Maine, New Mexico, and the District of Columbia go a step further by mandating Breakfast After The Bell (BATB), ensuring meals are served during school hours rather than before the day begins when many students haven't yet arrived.

California, Maine, New Mexico, and the District of Columbia (8 points each) are the highest-scoring states. These states all provide universal free breakfast and mandate BATB programs. Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon, and the recently added Arkansas (7 points each) offer universal free breakfast without BATB requirements.

Arkansas represents the latest evolution in this landscape. On February 20, 2025, Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders signed SB59 into law with overwhelming bipartisan support, establishing universal free breakfast statewide. While data on the new program's impact isn't yet available, Arkansas already shows relatively strong participation despite previously having minimal requirements.

The Participation Paradox

We learned that states with universal free breakfast policies (Index 7-8) have higher participation rates on average than states with minimal requirements (Index 1). West Virginia, with a policy rating of 6 (required in all schools, free for low-income), achieves the highest participation rate at 61.8%, while Utah ranks lowest at 22.9%.

The contrast is stark: in Utah, 77% of eligible children miss out on school breakfast, representing 27,555,000 missed meals annually. Similarly, despite California's strong policy framework (Index 8), the state still accounts for 420,005,000 missed meals each year—the highest in the nation.

To calculate "Estimated Missed Meals," we multiplied the number of eligible students not receiving breakfast by 167; a typical number of days in a school year. This shows the total nutritional opportunities lost annually.

When examining why eligible students don't participate, our survey of 2,550 parents revealed varying reasons across states. In states like Vermont and Minnesota, "preference for breakfast at home" was the primary reason cited. "Quality concerns" dominated in California and Washington, while "time/schedule constraints" topped the list in Alaska and Wyoming.

The Hunger Policy Gap

Perhaps most concerning is the correlation between a low School Breakfast Access Index score and food insecurity. Six of the ten states with the highest food insecurity rates have the lowest policy support (Index 1), creating what could be considered a "hunger policy gap."

Arkansas stands out with the nation's highest food insecurity rate at 18.9%, which may explain its recent policy shift to universal free breakfast. Texas follows with 16.9% food insecurity, while Louisiana and Mississippi both report 16.2%. Oklahoma rounds out the top five at 15.4%. Demonstrating that the states with the greatest need often have the weakest support systems in place.

This gap is further stressed by the ongoing egg shortage caused by avian influenza. With egg prices projected to increase 41% in 2025 according to USDA forecasts, breakfast costs are soaring at precisely the wrong time. Schools in states with weak breakfast policies (Index 1-2) face a "double burden" as they attempt to serve nutritious breakfasts with significantly higher ingredient costs.

The Communication Breakdown

Our survey also revealed significant variation in how effectively schools communicate about breakfast programs. When asked "Does your child's school clearly communicate the availability of breakfast?", parent responses varied dramatically.

New Mexico, Maine, Vermont, Colorado, and West Virginia reported the highest rates of clear communication, with 70-78% of parents answering "Yes." Other locales with strong breakfast policies, Oregon, Minnesota, and the District of Columbia each also had a "Yes" response rate of over 70%.

Conversely, Alaska (45% "Yes"), Wyoming (49% "Yes"), Idaho (50% "Yes"), and Montana (50% "Yes") showed the weakest communication, correlating with lower participation rates.

"Many parents simply don't know what's available," explains education communications specialist Sarah Thompson. "When schools actively promote breakfast programs and reduce stigma, participation increases even without policy changes."

The Path Forward

As inflation continues and egg shortages persist, school breakfast programs represent an increasingly important safety net for millions of American families. The data suggests the expansion of universal free breakfast programs and implementing Breakfast After The Bell would significantly increase participation.

"School meals contribute to students' academic achievement, foster healthy eating habits, and support America's working families," said School Nutrition Association President Shannon Gleave, RDN, SNS.

"But for less than the average price of a latte, school nutrition professionals are expected to prepare and serve a nutritionally balanced lunch, complete with fruits, vegetables, lean protein, and milk. Underfunded school meal programs need additional support from Congress to maintain meal quality, meet additional nutrition standards and ensure access for students in need."

Schools are facing both challenges and opportunities. States like Arkansas are taking bold steps toward universal access, while others maintain minimal requirements despite a high level of need. For millions of students caught in America's breakfast gap, their access to morning nutrition remains heavily influenced by their zip code—a reality that may have lasting consequences for their education and development.

Methodology

The School Breakfast Access Index rates state policies on a scale from 1-8. At level 1, states provide no requirements beyond federal programs, while level 2 offers limited state support without mandates. Levels 3-4 require breakfast in high-poverty schools, with level 4 eliminating copays for low-income students. Level 5 provides free breakfast for all students in high-poverty schools, while level 6 mandates breakfast in all schools with free options for low-income students. Level 7 represents universal free breakfast regardless of income, and level 8—the highest rating—combines universal free breakfast with Breakfast After The Bell mandates, ensuring meals are served during school hours when all students can participate without scheduling barriers.

This report draws from multiple data sources including the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Data Bank v8.2 for school meals participation statistics, USDA Food and Nutrition Service documentation on program structure, and USDA Economic Research Service data on food insecurity rates by state. State policy information was collected through analysis of state education department documentation and legislative records as of February 2025. Parent perspectives were gathered through a nationwide survey of 2,550 parents with children in public schools, conducted between February 14-17, 2025, with respondents distributed proportionally across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Egg shortage and inflation data were sourced from USDA Agricultural Marketing Service reports and Consumer Price Index forecasts. All participation rates and missed meals calculations use the 2023-24 school year as the reference period.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.